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Modelling the end of a Zero-COVID strategy in Wallis and Futuna

Updated: May 26, 2023

Full title: Modelling the end of a Zero-COVID strategy using nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, vaccination and NPIs in Wallis and Futuna.

Lancet Reg Health West Pac

Brault A, Tran-Kiem C, Couteaux C, Olié V, Paireau J, Yazdanpanah Y, Ghosn J, Martin-Blondel G, Bosetti P, Cauchemez S.

Here, we present an age-stratified compartmental model taking into account the prevalence of comorbidities and vaccination coverage in the population to assess the impact of antiviral treatment use, vaccination and NPIs on the healthcare system during a COVID-19 epidemic. The main originality of our study is to assess how a test and treat approach with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (brand name Paxlovid) targeting different groups according to age and comorbidity can complement vaccination and NPIs to mitigate an epidemic rebound when Zero-COVID ends. Another interesting feature is the study of the relative unique context of Wallis and Futuna, a French territory in the Pacific Ocean that has successfully implemented Zero-COVID but is affected by reluctance to vaccination, low immunity and high levels of comorbidities.

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